Thursday, April 26, 2007

A Real Life Example of Why Saves Suck

This item made it into the Newsstand on Baseball Think Factory, and I wanted to echo the thought here:

Dayn Perry writes about "being on pace" in this article. There, he has this tidbit about saves:

4. The Pace: Joe Borowski is on pace for 71 saves. This would comfortably shatter Bobby Thigpen's record 57 saves in 1990.

Why It Won't Happen: What's great about this is that Borowski is on pace for 71 saves and a 10.13 ERA. Talk about conflicting evidence. His season to date provides an object lesson in the flawed nature of the save statistic: you don't necessarily have to pitch well to pile them up.

What Will Probably Happen: Borowski, provided he keeps his job, racks up enough saves to give him the whiff of success (thanks to the quality of the team he's on). In reality, however, he'll be a below-average pitcher by closer standards.


I'm going to be following up on this later, but for now this is an excellent example that underscores my previous point: pitching well and getting saves do not necessarily go hand in hand.

No comments: